POPULATION GEOGRAPHY

Introduction

This activity looks at population growth and the demographic transition. It charts the changes that occur in birth rates, death rates and population growth rates as predominantly rural countries experience economic development, industrialization and urbanization.

Learning Objectives

This activity is designed to help you learn the following:

Setup

In your browser, open the mapping program URL: http://geogserver1.fullerton.edu/webmaps/populationjava_2/population.html
If the map fails to appear, try the alternate site http://geography.fullerton.edu/webmaps/populationjava_1/population.html
When the map appears, resize the browser window to make the scroll bars disappear. Note: your browser must be Java-enabled for the program to work properly.

Setting the Stage for the Demographic Transition

The demographic transition is a model which ties together the changes that occur in birth rates, death rates, population growth rates and population size as countries experience economic development. The model is based on the experience of European nations during the Industrial Revolution and its aftermath in the 19th and 20th Centuries. To begin your exploration:

Observe the information provided by the two graphs. The top graph indicates:

The bottom graph indicates:

Crude birth and death rates are defined as the number of births and deaths per year per 1,000 people in the population. For example, if a population of 1,000 people experiences 40 deaths in a year, the crude death rate is 40.0 per thousand. If a population of 10,000 people experiences 40 deaths in a year, the crude death rate would be only 4.0 per thousand. Generally speaking, birth and death rates of 40 to 50 per thousand are very high; birth and death rates of 10 or less are very low.

Because birth rates are only slightly higher than death rates, the total population is growing very slowly. The slight upward slope of the bottom graph indicates this gradual population growth.

Beginning the Demographic Transition

Now let's move forward in time:

As countries experience economic development, death rates begin to drop from their previous high levels. The reasons for this include:

These improvements affect children above all in the form of decreasing infant and child mortality. At the same time, the factors that cause death rates to fall have little or no immediate impact on birth rates. As a result:

 Continuing the Demographic Transition

Once again, let's more forward in time.

Eventually, death rates reach a low level and stabilize. Meanwhile, high birth rates begin to decline for a number of reasons, including:

Growth continues, but eventually the growth curve stops getting steeper and begins to rise at a gentler rate.

 End Result of the Demographic Transition

Now let’s complete the demographic transition.

Exponential Growth

When death rates fall while birth rates remain high, the total population grows faster and faster over time. This is called exponential growth. This effect was seen in the early portion of the demographic transition when the total population graph was getting steeper over time. In some societies, death rates fall rapidly but birth rates remain stubbornly high for a considerable time. That causes exponential growth to extend over a longer time span and produces a dramatically larger total population. You can view an example of the effect of exponential growth:

The population of a country can go right off the chart if birth rates remain stubbornly high for any extended period of time.

Stages in the Demographic Transition

The demographic transition can be divided into a sequence of four stages:

Once countries pass through the demographic transition, their birth and death rates are approximately in balance and population growth had slowed to a low rate. However, the total population is much higher than it was prior to the start of the demographic transition.

To sum up the demographic transition:

Demographic Transition and Geographic Regions

Let's look at a map showing the stages of the demographic transition:

Countries located at the second stage of the demographic transition will likely experience increasing rates of natural population increase over the next couple of decades because their death rates will fall faster than their birth rates.

Comparison of States in Various Stages of the Demographic Transition

Note how birth and death rates are linked to the stages of the demographic transition.

 Review Questions:

Try to answer the following review questions without looking back at your answers or at the computer. If you don't remember, then look back to find the answers.

 Exit the GIS Program

When you are finished:

Be sure to put you name on the completed Scantron form and hand it in to the lab instructor. Keep the activity questions.